【资讯】银海通:电力行业迎来发展新时代 电力产业投资正当时发表时间:2019-01-31 10:13 电力是关系国计民生的(de)重要基础产业(ye)和(he)公用事业(ye),也是国民经济重要组成部(bu)分和(he)工业(ye)的(de)中(zhong)心(xin)。从(cong)2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)年(nian)(nian)(nian)底的(de)中(zhong)央(yang)经济工作会,到(dao)2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)政府(fu)工作报(bao)告(gao)再到(dao)2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)新(xin)一(yi)轮电力体制改革,足以看出国家为新(xin)时代(dai)电力工业(ye)发展赋予了(le)新(xin)的(de)历(li)史(shi)使命。 回顾2017:需求旺盛 供需整体改善 经济(ji)回暖(nuan) 全社会(hui)用电增速创(chuang)新(xin)高 受宏(hong)观经济影响,工(gong)业生产稳中向好,2017年,全(quan)(quan)(quan)国GDP达82.7万亿元,同(tong)比(bi)上(shang)涨(zhang)6.9%,增速(su)较上(shang)年提(ti)高(gao)0.2个百(bai)分点(dian),全(quan)(quan)(quan)国全(quan)(quan)(quan)社会用(yong)电(dian)量6.4万亿千(qian)瓦时,同(tong)比(bi)上(shang)涨(zhang)6.6%,人(ren)均用(yong)电(dian)量4538千(qian)瓦时,人(ren)均生活用(yong)电(dian)量625千(qian)瓦时。全(quan)(quan)(quan)社会用(yong)电(dian)量同(tong)比(bi)增长6.6%,增速(su)同(tong)比(bi)提(ti)高(gao)1.6个百(bai)分点(dian),创(chuang)2014年以来(lai)的(de)新高(gao)。 夏(xia)季高温冬(dong)季寒潮 助力用电需(xu)求同比增长(zhang) 2017年夏季我国用电(dian)需求(qiu)保持较高(gao)(gao)水平:一产(chan)(chan)和三产(chan)(chan)在高(gao)(gao)温天(tian)气(qi)的(de)影(ying)响下,新增了额(e)外(wai)的(de)制冷需求(qiu);二(er)产(chan)(chan)方面计(ji)入(ru)二(er)产(chan)(chan)用电(dian)的(de)线损(sun)电(dian)量受电(dian)网负荷增长影(ying)响同比大(da)幅(fu)提升(sheng),造成7月用电(dian)需求(qiu)异常(chang)偏高(gao)(gao)。此外(wai),2017年12月寒(han)潮来袭(xi)导致全国平均气(qi)温较上一年同期偏低,供暖用电(dian)需求(qiu)同比上涨。 水(shui)电(dian)火电(dian)交替发(fa)力 清(qing)洁能(neng)源发(fa)电(dian)快(kuai)速增长 截至(zhi)2017年(nian)底,全(quan)国全(quan)口径(jing)发(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)装机容(rong)量(liang)17.8亿千瓦(wa)、同比(bi)增(zeng)长7.6%;全(quan)国全(quan)口径(jing)发(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)6.42万亿千瓦(wa)时、同比(bi)增(zeng)长6.5%。其中,火力(li)(li)(li)发(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同比(bi)上(shang)(shang)涨(zhang)5.2%,水(shui)力(li)(li)(li)发(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同比(bi)上(shang)(shang)涨(zhang)1.7%,核能(neng)发(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同比(bi)上(shang)(shang)涨(zhang)16.5%,风力(li)(li)(li)发(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同比(bi)上(shang)(shang)涨(zhang)26.3%,太阳能(neng)发(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同比(bi)上(shang)(shang)涨(zhang)75.4%。2017年(nian)上(shang)(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)火力(li)(li)(li)发(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)当月同比(bi)增(zeng)长速度(du)较快(kuai),而下半(ban)(ban)年(nian)水(shui)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)发(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)当月同比(bi)增(zeng)长速度(du)较快(kuai),因(yin)2017年(nian)上(shang)(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)水(shui)偏枯(ku),水(shui)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)释放发(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)空间,火电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)自然增(zeng)速较快(kuai),而下半(ban)(ban)年(nian)水(shui)转丰,水(shui)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)得力(li)(li)(li),火电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)发(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)空间受(shou)到一定影响。除此之外(wai),清洁能(neng)源月度(du)发(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)均(jun)保持较高(gao)增(zeng)速水(shui)平。 发电装机容量再提高 火电投资规模降至(zhi)十年来(lai)最低 2017年全国发电(dian)(dian)机容(rong)量增(zeng)(zeng)长至177708万(wan)千(qian)瓦,年均(jun)复合增(zeng)(zeng)速达9.1%,截(jie)止2017年底(di),全国全口径发电(dian)(dian)装机容(rong)量17.77亿千(qian)瓦,比上年增(zeng)(zeng)长7.7%,增(zeng)(zeng)速比上年回落0.5个百分点;风电(dian)(dian)、太阳能发电(dian)(dian)装机规(gui)模已超国家(jia)十三五规(gui)划目(mu)标(biao)。 2017年(nian)全国主要电(dian)力(li)企业(ye)电(dian)源(yuan)工程建设完(wan)成投资(zi)2900亿(yi)元,水(shui)电(dian)投资(zi)中抽水(shui)蓄能投资(zi)创历史新高(gao);核电(dian)投资(zi)为2009年(nian)以(yi)来最低水(shui)平;火电(dian)及(ji)其煤电(dian)投资(zi)规(gui)模(mo)大幅下降,为近十(shi)年(nian)来最低水(shui)平。 当下2018:供需环境持续向好 用电需(xu)求随(sui)宏观经济保持稳定增长 用(yong)电需求(qiu)与(yu)我国(guo)的(de)(de)宏(hong)观经(jing)济呈(cheng)现高度的(de)(de)相(xiang)关性,宏(hong)观经(jing)济的(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)长为用(yong)电需求(qiu)提供了一个(ge)前(qian)提。据国(guo)家统计局(ju)初步核算,2018年(nian)(nian)上(shang)半年(nian)(nian)我国(guo)GDP总量(liang)418961亿元,较(jiao)去年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)长了6.8%;用(yong)电量(liang)也相(xiang)应有所增(zeng)(zeng)长,中国(guo)全社会2018年(nian)(nian)上(shang)半年(nian)(nian)用(yong)电量(liang)32291千(qian)瓦时(shi),较(jiao)去年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期相(xiang)比增(zeng)(zeng)长9.4%,同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)速提高3.1%,创6年(nian)(nian)来新高。根据“中国(guo)宏(hong)观经(jing)济论坛(2018-2019)”报告会上(shang)发布的(de)(de)报告预计,2018年(nian)(nian)全年(nian)(nian)世纪GDP增(zeng)(zeng)速为6.6%。由此(ci)可预测,2018年(nian)(nian)全年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)用(yong)电量(liang)将有大幅(fu)增(zeng)(zeng)长。 清洁能源后来者居上 火力发(fa)电变成辅(fu)助军 早在2016年(nian)(nian)(nian),国(guo)家发(fa)(fa)改委及国(guo)家能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)局发(fa)(fa)布的(de)(de)(de)《电(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)发(fa)(fa)展“十(shi)三(san)五”规划》中(zhong)就(jiu)提(ti)出,加快清洁(jie)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)开(kai)发(fa)(fa)利用(yong),“十(shi)三(san)五”将逐渐(jian)减少电(dian)(dian)(dian)机(ji)组(zu)的(de)(de)(de)装机(ji)量、加大清洁(jie)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)装机(ji)量。到2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)上半(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian),上半(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian),核电(dian)(dian)(dian)、风电(dian)(dian)(dian)、太(tai)阳能(neng)发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)合计新增装机(ji)容(rong)(rong)量占(zhan)新增装机(ji)总容(rong)(rong)量的(de)(de)(de)66.1%,比去年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)提(ti)高5.4个百(bai)分点(dian);核电(dian)(dian)(dian)、风电(dian)(dian)(dian)、太(tai)阳能(neng)发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)量合计同(tong)比增长(zhang)19.0%,高于火(huo)电(dian)(dian)(dian)发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)增速11.0个百(bai)分点(dian)。 电网投资缓慢增长 2010年(nian)(nian)以(yi)来,我(wo)国电网投(tou)资(zi)继续加大,以(yi)较快速度增(zeng)(zeng)长。“十二五”以(yi)来,电网工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)建(jian)(jian)设(she)完(wan)(wan)成(cheng)投(tou)资(zi)年(nian)(nian)年(nian)(nian)有不同(tong)程(cheng)度的提升。其中(zhong),2011年(nian)(nian)完(wan)(wan)成(cheng)3682亿(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)6.77%;2012年(nian)(nian)完(wan)(wan)成(cheng)3693亿(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)0.2%;2013年(nian)(nian)完(wan)(wan)成(cheng)3894亿(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)5.44%;2014年(nian)(nian)突破4000亿(yi)达(da)4118亿(yi)元(yuan);2015年(nian)(nian)完(wan)(wan)成(cheng)4603亿(yi)元(yuan),增(zeng)(zeng)速首(shou)次达(da)到两位(wei)数;2016年(nian)(nian)首(shou)破5000亿(yi)大关,达(da)到5426亿(yi),增(zeng)(zeng)速大涨(zhang)至16.9%。而2017年(nian)(nian),我(wo)国主要电力企业电力工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)建(jian)(jian)设(she)完(wan)(wan)成(cheng)投(tou)资(zi)8015亿(yi)元(yuan)。其中(zhong),电源工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)建(jian)(jian)设(she)完(wan)(wan)成(cheng)投(tou)资(zi)2700亿(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)比下降20.8%;电网工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)建(jian)(jian)设(she)完(wan)(wan)成(cheng)投(tou)资(zi)5315亿(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)比下降2.2%。 我(wo)国现阶(jie)段(duan)的(de)(de)经(jing)济(ji)(ji)发(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)已由高速增(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)阶(jie)段(duan)向(xiang)高质(zhi)量发(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)阶(jie)段(duan)过渡,我(wo)国经(jing)济(ji)(ji)发(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)进入新时代,上述的(de)(de)电(dian)网(wang)投(tou)(tou)资数据完美的(de)(de)诠(quan)释了(le)从(cong)“高速”到“高质(zhi)量”、从(cong)“增(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)”到“发(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)”。电(dian)网(wang)建设力度的(de)(de)加大,为(wei)地区经(jing)济(ji)(ji)发(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)带来(lai)规模性、实(shi)效性的(de)(de)新增(zeng)投(tou)(tou)资,制造企业的(de)(de)业绩随之(zhi)水涨船(chuan)高。电(dian)网(wang)投(tou)(tou)资每(mei)增(zeng)加1亿元(yuan)就(jiu)能带动行业产(chan)出3亿元(yuan)。2017年,全国电(dian)网(wang)投(tou)(tou)资5315亿元(yuan),直接为(wei)市场带来(lai)万亿元(yuan)以(yi)上的(de)(de)产(chan)值。 电网投资建设从追求数量向追求质量转变 配电网建设成(cheng)投资(zi)趋势(shi) 从高速增长到高质(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)(liang)发展,说明电(dian)网建(jian)设(she)告别基础的总量(liang)(liang)扩张追求(qiu)转(zhuan)向(xiang)追求(qiu)在经济(ji)增长基础上内部结(jie)构(gou)(gou)、电(dian)力(li)系统及服(fu)务质(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)(liang)的整体提升与完善(shan)。自(zi)“十二五”开始至未(wei)来10年乃至更长的一(yi)段时间内,在电(dian)力(li)系统内部投资(zi)结(jie)构(gou)(gou)上,投资(zi)结(jie)构(gou)(gou)已逐步转(zhuan)向(xiang)电(dian)网智能化及配(pei)(pei)电(dian)网建(jian)设(she),且更加(jia)偏向(xiang)于配(pei)(pei)、用电(dian)侧。 2017年,电(dian)网(wang)(wang)(wang)投(tou)(tou)资(zi)继(ji)续向(xiang)配网(wang)(wang)(wang)及(ji)农(nong)(nong)网(wang)(wang)(wang)倾斜,新一(yi)轮农(nong)(nong)网(wang)(wang)(wang)改(gai)造(zao)(zao)升(sheng)级取(qu)得阶段性(xing)重(zhong)(zhong)大(da)进展(zhan)。110千伏(fu)及(ji)以(yi)下电(dian)网(wang)(wang)(wang)投(tou)(tou)资(zi)比重(zhong)(zhong)占(zhan)电(dian)网(wang)(wang)(wang)总投(tou)(tou)资(zi)比重(zhong)(zhong)达到53.2%;新一(yi)轮农(nong)(nong)网(wang)(wang)(wang)改(gai)造(zao)(zao)取(qu)得阶段性(xing)重(zhong)(zhong)大(da)进展(zhan),完成了《关于“十三五”期间实施新一(yi)轮农(nong)(nong)村电(dian)网(wang)(wang)(wang)改(gai)造(zao)(zao)升(sheng)级工程的意(yi)见(jian)》(国办发〔2016〕9号)文件中“中心(xin)村电(dian)网(wang)(wang)(wang)改(gai)造(zao)(zao)升(sheng)级,实现(xian)平原(yuan)地(di)区机井用电(dian)全(quan)覆(fu)盖”的任(ren)务。 由国家(jia)电(dian)网(wang)、南(nan)方电(dian)网(wang)两(liang)家(jia)公司的规划来(lai)看,未来(lai)完成(cheng)农网(wang)改(gai)造升级、改(gai)善乡镇(zhen)供电(dian)服务设施(shi)配置仍是核心(xin)工作。 综上(shang),一(yi)方面(mian),综合(he)2017年及2018年上(shang)半年我国的宏观经济状况(kuang)及电(dian)(dian)(dian)力供需(xu)情况(kuang)来看,未来,我国用(yong)电(dian)(dian)(dian)需(xu)求还(hai)(hai)将维持稳定增(zeng)长。电(dian)(dian)(dian)力供给方面(mian),在(zai)国家(jia)政策推(tui)动(dong)下(xia)清洁能源(yuan)迅速(su)发展、火电(dian)(dian)(dian)新增(zeng)装机(ji)受限,各方下(xia)发政策,电(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)结构还(hai)(hai)将持续优化;另一(yi)方面(mian),随(sui)着(zhe)城(cheng)镇化、农业现代化步伐加快,新能源(yuan)、分(fen)布式电(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)、电(dian)(dian)(dian)动(dong)汽车、储能装置快速(su)发展,终(zhong)端(duan)用(yong)电(dian)(dian)(dian)负荷(he)呈现增(zeng)长快、变化大、多样化的新趋势,使得电(dian)(dian)(dian)网改造升(sheng)级愈发紧迫。在(zai)电(dian)(dian)(dian)网建设投(tou)资(zi)中,随(sui)着(zhe)用(yong)电(dian)(dian)(dian)量增(zeng)速(su)变缓(huan)和(he),骨干网架建设逐步完善,电(dian)(dian)(dian)网投(tou)资(zi)的重心(xin)将转向配电(dian)(dian)(dian)网方面(mian)。 ※投资有风(feng)险(xian),选择需谨(jin)慎。本文仅(jin)作为知(zhi)识(shi)分享,不构成任何投资建议。 长期从事大气环境污染治理设备的研发、设计和制造、安装。电话:0392-3308905;0392-3308908 以(yi)上内容(rong)来源于公众号银海通 ,由分(fen)享发布,如有侵权,请联系删除。 |